THE GLOBAL VIEW: HIGHER GOLD IN 2020

A growing number of international investment firms are jumping on the gold bandwagon. After a strong 2019 that saw gold climb about 14 percent through late December, precious metals analysts at these companies are predicting another banner year for the precious metal.

Swiss investment bank UBS AG forecasts gold will reach $1,600 an ounce by mid-year, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, continued low interest rates, and more fireworks from Washington. “Who knows what the U.S. president does next, he has surprised us many times,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management. “We also have the presidential elections, so expect more volatility, more noise in the market.”

Dutch investment bank ABN AMRO also sees gold at $1,600, but not until the second half of 2020. Precious metals analyst Georgette Boele expects it will take some time for the speculative fever in equities to cool. She also looks for a softening economy that will lead the Federal Reserve to again cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2020. “Central banks remain keen to support growth and/or to reach their inflation target. In the near term, we expect growth in the eurozone to remain weak and the economic situation in the U.S. to deteriorate,” Boele argues.

London-based HSBC sees gold reaching $1,605 an ounce next year, and Standard Chartered, a global bank also based in London, sees gold hitting $1,570 in next year’s fourth quarter. “We think a lot of these macro factors are likely to align themselves to support gold,” said precious metals analyst Suki Cooper who sees retail demand for gold bullion and bars as a driving force for gold. “Retail investors almost want confirmation of further rate cuts, some weakness in the equity markets before they move into gold. The next leg higher in 2020 is going to be led by the retail side,” she told Bloomberg News.