The increasing frequency of geopolitical tensions has Citigroup analysts forecasting a “new normal” of elevated risk that will support the price of gold in the next few years and even push it above $1,400-an-ounce, CNBC reports. Citi’s analysis sees investors increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven in a troubled world.
“Event-driven bids for gold seem to be occurring more frequently and may be the new normal…the yellow metal is increasingly being used by investors as a policy and tail risk hedge,” CNBC quotes from the analysis. Citi’s Wealth Management Investment Strategy team currently recommends an overweight position in gold.
The danger of conflict is especially high on the Korean Peninsula, where North Korea has been testing missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and in the Middle East, where recent hostilities have diplomats fearing the possibility of a war between Israel and Syria to prevent Iran, Syria’s ally, from gaining dominance in the region. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker makes clear how volatile the globe is today, listing seven conflicts that have a critical impact on U.S. interests – in Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea, Iraq, Libya, and the South and East China Seas – and eleven others that have a significant impact.
Denmark’s Saxo Bank points to rising political risks as a factor that could help gold break through the $1,300 level and reach $1,325 by year-end.
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