Gold Reigns Supreme in 2025’s First Half

Gold outperformed all investment assets during the first half of 2025, setting record after record in a world shaken by war, political conflict, policy uncertainty, economic worries, and an ever expanding U.S. government debt load.

As investors worldwide sought the safety of gold, the precious metal’s price soared 26 percent in London trading, its best half-year performance since 2007. The metal’s one-year gains are 41 percent.

Silver chased after gold during the second quarter of 2025 to post a first half gain of 24 percent.

Amid worries over tariff policy, stocks were pummeled in February and March. While stock indexes recovered in May and June, their gains for the first half of the year were modest. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up five percent during the first half, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained just under five percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up four percent. Through their violent ups and downs, the three major stock indices all posted one-year gains of about 13 percent as of June’s end, less than one-third of gold’s performance.

Bonds trailed precious metals and stocks. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was up four percent for the first half, and up six percent for the one-year period. 

No one can predict with certainty what investment returns will be at year end. But the factors that sparked gold’s record-setting rally remain in place: ongoing war, geopolitical tension, tariff uncertainty, fears of both an economic slowdown and rising inflation—raising the specter of stagflation, and a tax bill that appears destined to throw Washington ever deeper into debt.