Chinese Gold Buying Exceeds What Beijing Declares

China appears to be buying more gold than it has publicly disclosed. Analysis of import data shows a significant flow of the precious metal from London to Shanghai, even at times when gold was more expensive in London than in Shanghai. Shipments of gold bars to China continued through most of 2024, including periods when the country’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), did not declare purchases. It appears China has been buying an average of 40 tons a month since 2022, according to Goldman Sachs.

Other countries also seem to be keeping quiet about some of their gold purchases. The World Gold Council (WGC), which tracks central bank gold holdings, reported 1,045 tons of central bank purchases in 2024 by analyzing public data and trade flows, in addition to its own field research. Only about one-third of that buying was publicly announced.

Discrepancies in trade data indicate that more than 1,200 tons of gold bullion owned by central banks entered Switzerland in the last three years, a significant increase in transport of the precious metal. Switzerland is the world’s leading processing and transport hub for gold. From there, bullion can be shipped to financial centers like Shanghai.

Though they follow the PBOC’s public announcements closely, precious metals analysts now view the bank’s gold purchase declarations with skepticism, particularly after the shock of 2015. For the six years prior, China had said nothing about making gold purchases, then, in 2015, China revealed a massive 600 ton increase in gold reserves.

The PBOC announced purchases of 70,000 troy ounces of gold in June, the eighth consecutive month of publicly acknowledged buying.

China’s central bank holds 2,296 tons of gold, amounting to almost seven percent of its reserve assets, according to the World Gold Council. By contrast, the U.S. holds 8,113 tons of gold, 78 percent of its reserves.