The tide appears to be turning against the U.S. dollar, and that could help boost the price of gold in 2020.
After Boris Johnson’s Conservative party victory in December’s British elections, the Pound Sterling soared, bringing its gains against the U.S. dollar to 8 percent since mid-October. The Euro also rose against the dollar, as investors calculated a resolution of the Brexit issue could loosen British and European purse strings.
Morgan Stanley currency strategist Hans Redeker predicted a stronger Euro and weaker dollar. “U.S. growth is likely to slow modestly further into 2020 as fiscal tailwinds fade, while European data may exceed the market’s low bar,” said Redeker.
Because gold is primarily denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar can attract buying interest overseas as gold becomes more affordable for foreign buyers.
Money has been flowing into international equities, another factor that has begun to weigh on the U.S. dollar. Some prominent investment strategists say international stocks offer better value than U.S. equities leading to forecasts that global stocks will outperform domestic equities in 2020.
Investment firm Goldman Sachs is among those forecasting a weaker dollar in 2020. “When risky assets are moving up, the U.S. dollar tends to fall. Likely for this reason, sentiment around the dollar has turned increasingly bearish as global equities have made new highs,” said Zach Pandl, Goldman Sachs currency analyst.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Chase is sticking with its longtime forecast for a weaker dollar. The bank argues growing U.S. trade deficits “tend to flood global markets with dollars to facilitate U.S. purchases of foreign goods and services,” thereby pressuring the dollar.
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