The Iran war strengthens the case for owning precious metals, argues respected global consultant Metals Focus.
If the April ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran largely holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to shipping traffic, Metals Focus says the price of oil will ease, U.S. Treasury bond yields will retreat, and the pressure that rising interest rates have placed on precious metals prices will disappear. This is the firm’s base case.
If the war were to reignite and continue for months, Metals Focus argues gold and silver will still thrive. “Over time weaker growth, inflationary pressures and fiscal strain would likely weigh on real yields. Coupled with a resurgence of safe-haven demand as pro-cyclical markets contend with liquidations, this should rekindle interest in both gold and silver,” predicts Metals Focus.
The firm is forecasting a rebound for gold to $5,500 an ounce by mid-summer, and expects the precious metal to reach an annual average of $5,800 an ounce for the full year.
In spite of recent volatility, retail investors have been holding on to their silver, Metals Focus says. With growing demand from retail buyers, the firm sees silver climbing 88 percent in 2026, rising above its early-year peak to as high as $135 an ounce. One caveat to the Metals Focus silver forecast is the risk that a prolonged war depresses the global economy, which would reduce industrial demand for the metal.
