Investment in gold bars and coins is expected to exceed gold jewelry demand in 2026 for the first time. The mid-year forecast comes from Metals Focus, a globally respected research consultancy that provides intelligence for major players in the global precious metals market.
Demand for gold jewelry has fallen precipitously in the last two years, and continued dipping during the first quarter of 2026, off 23 percent on a year-over-year basis, a response to the rising price of gold. That trend will continue through the year, according to Metals Focus, while demand for physical gold, particularly bars, continues to grow.
Total bar and coin demand last year approached 1,400 metric tons, while jewelry purchases stood at just over 1,540 tons.
Underlying the forecast is Metals Focus’ expectation that gold prices will resume their rally in the second half of the year as uncertainty over the Iran war eases. Metals Focus does not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2026 to avoid an economic slowdown.
“The drivers from 2025 remain intact: ongoing U.S. policy uncertainty, persistent concerns about the dollar’s long-term outlook, elevated geopolitical risks, and stretched equity valuations,” said Matthew Piggott, Director of Gold and Silver at Metals Focus. “Together, these factors reinforce gold’s role as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier.”
