A Silver Lining for 2018

Posted on: December 5th, 2017

Canadian investment bank TD Securities is forecasting a bullish 2018 for precious metals, predicting silver will post the strongest gains within the metals complex. The bank set a price target of $20-an-ounce for silver, which was trading near $16 in late December, below its 2017 opening level.

“Underperforming silver is set to shine as gold improves amid still low real rates,” the bank says in its 2018 Global Outlook.

TD analysts anticipate the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates in 2018 at a slower pace than Fed policymakers have indicated. As other central banks, notably in Europe and China, tighten monetary policy, TD foresees pressure on the U.S. dollar, which would be a positive for precious metals. Growing industrial demand and weak mining supply are also supportive of silver, the report says.

TD Securities predicts the U.S. tax reform package will, “massively expand the U.S. debt, and higher debt-to-GDP ratios have traditionally been accretive to the precious complex.”

After a record-setting 2017 stock market that priced in low interest rates and “earnings perfection”, TD anticipates a growing percentage of investors will see more downside than upside risk in the stocks, leading them to increase precious metals holdings as a hedge. TD Securities forecasts gold rising to the $1,300-an-ounce level during the first half of 2018, then climbing to $1,325 in the second half of the year. Gold briefly topped $1,300 in 2017, but failed to hold the gain, and traded about $20 below that mark in late December.

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