Gold decisively broke out of a six-year trading range and closed above the $1,400-an-ounce level in June, triggering buy signals from some analysts.
“We believe there is a very good chance that this could mark the beginning of a new gold bull market,” wrote Van Eck precious metals analyst Joseph Foster.
Fears of a global economic slowdown, rising geopolitical tension—over Iran’s downing of a U.S. drone and between the U.S. and China over trade policy— and declining interest rates have all positioned gold for a rally. The U.S. economic expansion is now in its second decade, leading many investors to wonder how much longer it can last. Already, the U.S. bond market has sent signals it’s anticipating a recession, as bond yields have been steadily sinking since early November.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Federal Reserve has acknowledged it’s leaning towards interest rate reductions to sustain economic growth. The central bank’s June 19 policy statement indicating such flexibility, triggered a two-day leap that took gold above $1,400.
“Gold, the anti-dollar, is on fire,” wrote Societe Generale’s fixed income strategist Kit Juckes.
“Gold is golden,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Group Futures, who predicts declining global interest rates will “keep the market strong.”Meanwhile, CFRA Research is recommending clients add to gold positions because the precious metal is, “a smart and defensive way to diversity a portfolio in the later innings of a bull market for which uncertainties have increased.”