Citigroup predicts the price of gold could top $2,000 within the next two years.
He expects gold to close this year at $1,575 and hit $1,675 next year, with an “increasing probability” that the precious metal in 2021 will challenge and even top the high of $1,907 hit in September of 2011.
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Investors have turned increasingly bullish on gold as bond prices have jumped, pushing yields lower. As yields on bonds drop they lose a competitive advantage relative to gold, which, of course, does not pay interest. Trillions of dollars of government bonds in Europe are trading with negative yields that assure buyers will lose money if they hold the bonds to maturity.
Citi says the combination of low interest rates, growing risks of a global economic contraction, and continued strong demand for gold from central banks will work to drive the precious metal higher. Central banks bought the most gold in half a century last year, and the aggressive buying is continuing as Russia and other countries try to reduce their currency reserve exposure to the U.S. dollar.
“From a birds’-eye view, low(er) for longer nominal and real interest rates, escalating global recession risks—exacerbated by U.S.-China trade tensions—heightened geopolitical rifts amid rich equity and credit market valuations, coupled with strong central bank and investor buying activity, are all combining to buttress a bullish gold market environment,” wrote the Citigroup analyst.
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